Darts boffins create new xD model – and shows just how good this year has been

A darts analyst has created the sport's own version of football's expected goals statistic to help predict the result of a match.

The xG measurement has become a phenomenon amongst supporters of the beautiful game in recent years, and now fans of tungsten can get in on the act.

They have Christopher Kempf to thank, who in his role as a stats man for the PDC has created what he has coined the 'Ordinal Checkout Efficiency' (OChE).

As he explained on Twitter, the statistic measures a player's performance with a number from 0-100 – and he claims it is 40 per cent more accurate at predicting an outcome than using the players' averages.

The figure represents the expected percentage of matches that player would win on the Pro Tour with that performance.

Kempf continues: "Players are rated on this scale by the % of legs that they win in 12, 15, 18 and 21 darts (or fewer).

"Winning a leg in 13 darts confers no additional benefit relative to a 15-darter, since the player's opponent is allowed the same number of darts to win the leg for themself.

"To earn a 100 rating, a player would typically need to win every leg of the match in 12 darts or fewer – that player would certainly be winning almost 100% of Pro Tour matches on that performance.

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"A 0 rating is had by failing to win any leg after 21 darts thrown."

Using the model, Kempf was able to show just how good the standard of quality has been in darts this year.

The World Championships at Alexandra Palace have featured several tantalising contests in recent weeks.

Perhaps the pick of the bunch so far was Michael Smith's fourth-round clash with Jonny Clayton.

According to the OChE, it was only the second match in the tournament's history where both players had a rating over 70.

The first time this was the case was during Michael van Gerwen's astonishing semi-final win over Raymond van Barneveld in 2017.

Kempf also detailed the players who have managed a 70+ rating in this year's championships on their own, of which there were three more occasions aside from Smith vs Clayton.

Both men also achieved the feat in their respective second round matches, with Smith registering 80.15 against Ron Meulenkamp and Clayton 73.84 against Keane Barry.

World number two Peter Wright is the other player on the list, with his third-round demolition of Damon Heta earning a 75.17 rating.

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